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BCC Population Projections for Sherwood-Graceville Neighbourhood Plan Area

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BCC Population Projections for Sherwood-Graceville Neighbourhood Plan Area

The Walter Taylor South Action Group approached council on behalf of the community to ascertain the expected net population increase for the Sherwood-Graceville area under 2 scenarios:

  1. With current Neighbourhood Plan
  2. With the proposed draft Neighbourhood Plan

The following figures are based on modelling estimates only and may have room for error because of the small scale of these precinct areas.
According to the BUG-generated figures, the following growth is expected to 2031 as a result of the latest version of the Sherwood-Graceville Neighbourhood Plan:
Population growth: 1707
Dwellings growth: 861
 
These should be read in light of the growth expected without a Sherwood-Graceville Neighbourhood Plan:
Population growth: 1505
Dwellings growth: 737
 
Thus, growth over and over that predicted in the original City Plan PIP and therefore attributable to the Sherwood and Corinda Precincts is:
 
Population: 202
Dwellings: 124
 

Regarding the extra traffic likely to be generated by growth in the Precincts.
 
Transport and Traffic’s response to this question is:
At present the average household unit in Brisbane makes about 7 trips per day.
Based on an extra 200 dwellings over the next 20 years, traffic generation is estimated at less than 1500 trips per day.
Considering that the growth and therefore the extra traffic generated will occur over the next 20 years, these trip would hardly be noticeable.
Further, consideration needs to be given to future mode share changes - an increase in walking and cycling to make local trips and an increase in use of public transport is expected.
Also the fact that this area has four rail stations and good access to bus services, the number of extra trips generated will most likely be less than the figure stated.
'Peak oil' is also likely to result in changes to travel behaviour.
 

karen
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BCC Population Projections traffic impact

I am concerned that the impact of traffic in the Sherwood/Graceville area based on BCC population projections does not include the development going on at the Tennyson Tennis Precinct, nor take into account the future development at Yeerongpilly where the current DPI is situated.  One document I have seen says the Tennyson/Yeerongpilly Landing Project is talking about housing an additional 6,000 people – if correct, that seems awfully large.  There are also hundreds of units being developed at the Tennyson Reach currently (Approx 6 blocks of units @ 90/100 apartments each, so minimum of 450 people to over 1000 if more than one person per unit.)  The closest major shoppingtown to these new developments is Indooroopilly Shoppingtown.  Access can only be gained through Graceville/Chelmer via Graceville Avenue and Oxley Road, or Nadine Street and Bridge Street.  The BCC projection is based on an average of 7 trips a day per family unit.  If even a quarter of the people in the new Tennyson/Yeerongpilly developments come towards Sherwood/Graceville/Indooroopilly, you are looking at 7 x 1,500 = 10,500 extra trips a day? 
 
Already there are major delays in getting over Walter Taylor Bridge, and not always during peak hour.  It took 45 minutes to get from Corinda to Indooroopilly at 12.15 pm on Saturday, 5 June because traffic on Oxley Road was at a standstill from Strong Avenue, Graceville.
 
Also, the closest high schools to this new development are Yeronga SHS, Indooroopilly SHS, Corinda SHS, St Peter's Lutheran College at Indooroopilly, Brigidine College at Indooroopilly and St Aidans at Corinda.  Primary schools are Yeronga SS, Graceville SS, Sherwood SS, St Joseph's at Corinda, and Christ the King at Graceville.   Where are these people likely to travel?  There is more choice in the Sherwood/Graceville/Indooroopilly area. 
 
The closest transport will be Yeerongpilly railway station (which doesn't take you to Indooroopilly), Tennyson railway station (which has only 5 trains Mon to Fri which go to Corinda), and the local bus route 105 - pick up point in Softstone street - which is irregular.  There are 3 buses in the morning peak hour Monday to Friday going to the city (about 45 minutes apart) and then they are hourly.  Last bus into town is 6.10 pm Monday to Friday.  On Saturday, they are hourly, with the last bus into town at 5.44 pm.  There are four buses on Sunday - 2 hours apart, last bus at 3.40 pm.   The PA Rail Bus route 104 which goes through Tennyson has very few pick up points and only goes to Corinda Rail Station.
 
'Peak oil' can only change travel behaviour if there is a viable alternative - which currently there is not.  So even if people wanted to use public transport, the transport is not readily available. 

Yvonne Bursle
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projected population under draft plan

 How could we only expect ~860 dwellings in the area if we are to allow a large sector of five storey units in both Sherwood and Corinda along with the present trend to town houses and small lots? Y.Bursle

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